What are Betting Value Averages?

Betting Value Averages (BVA's) are a new, completely different, ok...revolutionary...approach to handicapping. Using a proprietary formula created by Turfday and professional statisticians, the BVA's are calibrated to resemble a baseball player's batting average...the higher the better.

Standings don't even come close to telling the whole story about how effective a trainer, a jockey, a trainer-jockey combination, or even a post position actually is. Return-on-investment (ROI) stats can be skewed by a few results.

The theory behind creating BVA's was simple. Create an effective way for handicappers to accurately judge how a sire, a jockey, a trainer, a trainer-jockey combination and even a post position performs in the short term and in the long term. Just like a speed figure, make it something people can understand and make comparisons to...in this case, a baseball player's batting average.

The theory also maintained that in this modern, high-tech information age, that speed figures and trip and trouble notes are very often OVERBET factors. That subtle handicapping angles are often the key to overlays.

Thus, BVA's and the daily Valuator report are filled with just that. Angles for handicappers to be aware of...whether they are positive, negative or even benign.

Simple logic also went into the theory behind the BVA formula. Is it easier for a sire's offspring, a jockey, a trainer, or a trainer-jockey combination to win in a 6-horse field, or a 12-horse field? In the case of post position standings, should all sprint races at a given track be considered the same and lumped together, no matter what the size of the field or varying distance?

Should a sire's offspring, a jockey, a trainer, or a trainer-jockey combination receive the same credit for winning in a 6-horse field, as they would in a 12-horse field?

Logic says the answer is NO!

Should a sire's offspring, a jockey, a trainer, or a trainer-jockey combination be rewarded for an in-the-money run at high odds in a big field the SAME WAY as an in-the-money finish at low odds in a small field?

Logic says NO.

In actuality, the BVA formula is much more like a baseball player's SLUGGING average derived from FOUR important factors:

• FINISH POSITION
  An in-the-money finish at high odds in a big field could weigh more in the BVA than a win in a short field at low odds.
• RECENCY OF DATA BASED ON A ROLLING AVERAGE
  Users have their choice of using the last calendar year, the last three calendar years or "all-time" since Jan. 1, 1995. Depending on what you feel is more important (keeping in mind SAMPLE SIZE is important), BVA's are weighed more heavily for recency, recognizing "what have you done for me lately" but encumbass the whole time period you choose.
• CLOSING ODDS (THE PUBLIC'S VIEW OF THE RACE)
  This is obviously is a reflection of all the handicapping factors the public considers.
• FIELD SIZE
  The thought all along is that the dynamics of a race change as field size goes up and that generally, it should be easier to win in a 6-horse field than in a 12-horse field. BVA's take this into account.

What are the components of BVAs?

The BVA formula has three main components...Consistency, Value and Combined. To use BVA's effectively, it's really up to the user to decide which component is most suited for the particular kind of race he is handicapping or that fits his style of play the best.

The VALUE BVA is derived from finish position, recency of data and the odds the horses go off at. The CONSISTENCY BVA does NOT incorporate the odds. The COMBINED BVA measures and blends the two (VALUE + CONSISTENCY) equally.
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Please provide examples.

For example, a trainer, jockey, trainer-jockey combination or sire that scores with a high odds horse in a big field will get more credit than with a low odds horse in a big field. A trainer, jockey, trainer-jockey combination or sire that consistently produces at low odds would probably earn a high BVA™ in the CONSISTENCY BVA™. Those same trainers, jockeys, trainer-jockey combinations or sires might not nearly be as effective at high odds. If that's the case, that would be reflected in a low VALUE BVA™.

Similarly, a trainer, jockey, trainer-jockey combination or sire that wins with a low odds horse won't get nearly as much credit as if it had been at high odds.

In the money finishes COUNT AS WELL! The theory being is that importantly, the BVA's™ also take into consideration INTENT…live horses that ran well, but perhaps didn't win. This is especially invaluable for playing exotic wagers. Again, this is taken into account in the formula above.

Standings can't tell this story. There are many trainers, jockeys, sires and perhaps even trainer-jockey combinations that get OVERBET by the crowd creating underlays. Similarly, that leaves the door open for the UNSUNG…the ones that the crowd does not fully embrace creating OVERLAYS.

Moreover, reasoning that in racing, as in most businesses, "what have you done for me lately" is more important than what happened three or four years ago, the BVA's™ also factor in a "moving" or "rolling" average. The more recent the data, the more relevant the data. This identifies CURRENT TRENDS! However, to insure statistical validity by providing enough of a sample size in the various categories, data going back at least three years or perhaps longer is used in some of the categories, but weighted accordingly with our formula.

What are the BVA categories?

The main BVA™ categories are: trainer, jockey, trainer-jockey combinations, sire and post position. The sub-categories for trainer are sprints, routes, turf, first-time starters, 45-day layoff and overall (all starters). The sub-categories for jockey are sprints, routes, turf, overall (all mounts). The sub-categories for trainer-jockey combos are the same as for jockey. The sub-categories for sire are sprints, routes, turf, first-time starters and overall.

Most post position studies at each track LUMP together individually all sprints, all routes and all turf races. That, of course, is invalid since field size is not factored in and the dynamics of any given race and probability of winning change depending on the field size. And notwithstanding field size, a 6-furlong race is NOT run the same as a 7-furlong race. Most studies don't take this into account.

The BVA's™ for post position separate each individual distance run at a given track and then, UNIQUELY, those races by FIELD SIZE. So when considering the BVA's™ for post position at any given track at any given distance (depending on the field size you are handicapping), you are COMPARING APPLES TO APPLES.

And like the formula for the other categories, we go back several years at each track at each distance at each same field size and use the same, separate formulas for VALUE, CONSISTENCY and COMBINED, weighted accordingly by recency to identify current trends, but giving us an ample (enough races) sample size to come up with statically valid post position data.

Are there really post position biases at certain distances at certain tracks around the country? The BVA's™ for post position CAN PINPOINT if there really are!

Top and Bottom Lists

Top and Bottom Lists are presented for each category. It is important to note: To qualify to appear in a Top and Bottom lists, there must be a minimum number of 30 starts over the three-year moving cycle in that category. So, for example, to appear in a Top/Bottom list for trainer with turf, the trainer must have started at least 30 horses in turf races over the previous three years.

What is Turfday's Database?

Turfday's database consists of ALL thoroughbred races ran in the United States since on January 1, 1995. The database is provided by Equibase (http://www.equibase.com) , the thoroughbred industry's source for all data.. The database is updated daily..

Raw statistics are available for the three time periods: a) January 1, 1995 to the present; b) the previous three years (which is the previous 1095 days from the date that the database was updated, usually nightly); and c) the previous one year (or 365 days from from the date that the database was updated). All trainers are shown even though they may have had only one start in the category. Categories include: All Races, Sprints, routes, turf, Off Tracks, 1st-Time Starts, 45+ Day Layoffs, 120+ Day Layoffs, 2nd Start off Layoff, Off a Claim, 1st Start with Trainer, 1st Time on Turf, Favorites, Sprint Favorites, Route Favorites, Turf Favorites, Sprint-to-Route, Sprint-to-Route (60 day cycles), Route-to-Sprint, Route-to-Sprint (60 day cycles), Dirt-to-Turf, Dirt-To-Turf (60 day cycles), Turf-to-dirt, Turf-to-Dirt (60 day cycles), 1st Time Lasix, 2nd Time Lasix, Blinker Change, Blinkers On, Blinkers Off, 2-Year-Olds, 3-Year-Olds, 4-Year-Olds, Colts & Geldings, Fillies & Mares, Hot or Cold in Last 30 Days, and Hot or Cold in Last 90 Days.

Summary

In summary, in year's past, the buzzwords in handicapping were trips and trouble and speed figures. Now for the millenium, it is VALUE. By incorporating BVA's™ into the handicapping process, players all over the country can zero in on the relevant categories for each race using these powerful averages to find OVERLAYS and UNDERLAYS…to toss out/eliminate certain ones or to include others not so apparent to the crowd. The BVA's are made-to-order for simulcast players and for those that love playing exotic wagers.

(BVA™ is a trademark of Turfday)

BVA statistics through Aug 25, 2008

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